by diastole-admin | May 4, 2026 | Uncategorized
Stocks had another good week and the Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both ended at new record highs. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 5.6%, while the Nasdaq is 8% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up about 3% for 2026 but is below its record high. Meanwhile, bond prices slid and yields rose, with the yield on the ten-year Treasury Bond up to 4.378%. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
(When you buy a bond, you are, for the most part, buying the cash flow that that bond provides. When you pay more for a specific bond, you are receiving cash flow that is a lower percentage of your purchase price. Therefore, the more you spend on a bond, the lower the yield of that bond. It works in reverse, too. If bond prices go down, you are spending less money to receive the same yield, and the percentage return is higher. But always remember that if held to maturity, a fixed-rate bond will be worth its face value.)
But we have to ask the same question as last week: with everything that’s going on, why are stock prices so high? Whence comes this optimism?
Apparently, we have entered the way-back machine, and the current rally is largely about artificial intelligence, which was moving markets up last year, before it started moving markets down. AI is either the end of civilization, or the hope of all people for the future. You choose!
Consumer spending, as always, is leading the economy. But the economy IS K-shaped. The wealthier you are, the more likely you are to spend. Many people also received their tax refunds recently, but with war-related inflation building across the country (and the world) one must ask how long the economy and the stock market can remain strong.
Last week we received the updated personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) for March. The data showed that the PCE climbed by 0.7% in the month of March and was 3.5% higher for the trailing twelve months. This shows that inflation is rising rather than falling. 3.5% is considerably higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, but not wholly surprising given how oil, gas, and related prices have risen since the end of February when the Iran war started.
And speaking of the Fed, it is likely that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as President Trump’s pick for Fed Chairman, which made last week’s Open Market Committee the final one that Chairman Powell will chair. But in a surprising move, Powell has indicated that instead of leaving the Fed when his term as chair is over, he is going to stay on. His appointment tenure lasts until 2028. Not coincidentally, the Department of Justice has announced that its investigation into Powell could be resurrected at any time.
Think kids and grandkids are expensive? You are right! According to an analysis by Lending Tree, the national average for the cost of raising a child for 18 years is now $303,418. That doesn’t include college! The total is up 1.9% from last year.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) withdrew from OPEC as of last Friday. OPEC watchers are still trying to figure out exactly what this means, but it seems obvious enough that the UAE was stunned when Iran started bombing it in retaliation for the US actions against Iran. Iran is an OPEC member. Other factors may also be in play.
We know that Iran is having trouble getting its oil to market with the Strait of Hormuz blockaded by the U.S. Some watchers have suggested that Iran’s oil capabilities are going to explode. Not so far. What HAS happened, though, is that Iran has so much unsold oil that it is now storing the oil in derelict tanks and tankers. Before the U.S. blockade, Iran was shipping about two million barrels each day. Now it’s down to one-quarter off that and is trying to get oil to China by railway.
For the week ending on May 1st, the S&P finished at 7,230, the Nasdaq at 25,114, and the Dow at 49,499. The yield on the ten-year Treasury Note closed at 4.378%. Contracts on WTI (American) crude oil were selling at about $102.31 per barrel, while Brent (international) crude contracts were going for $110.76. New York gold was bid at $4,574.20 per ounce, and one Euro was worth $1.17.
Elizabeth E. Cook
Partner, Diastole Wealth Management
News and information presented here were gathered from sources believed, but not guaranteed, to be reliable, including (but not limited to) Morning Brew, Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, CNBC, Axios, Bloomberg, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, CNN, The AP, Fortune, CBS, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, and The Hustle. If you have questions, please call us at 203.458.5220, or email me, Liz Cook, at ecook@dwinvest.com.
The world’s shortest airline passenger flight operates between the Orkney Islands and Papa Westray in northern Scotland. The length of the flight? 1.7 miles and one minute. Hardly worth the beverage service!
by diastole-admin | Apr 27, 2026 | Uncategorized
April 27, 2026
Despite many of us thinking that the stock market is just plain wrong (what about the war in Iran, rising inflation, and governmental incompetence?), stocks continued to rise last week. Both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed out the week at record highs, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished just about 2% below its record.
But why? We are facing so many challenges.
Well, as one economist on t.v. said: there are other things going on. We are in the middle of earnings season and companies are performing well. Oil and gas are rising in price due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but energy companies are profiting. Inflation is hurting American families, but higher prices are contributing to corporate coffers. See a trend here? It’s a good reminder that the stock market is not the economy, and companies operate for the benefit of their owners (shareholders), not the public.
More examples of this: large layoffs were announced last week by Meta (Facebook), Nike, and Microsoft (which is offering voluntary retirement to thousands of workers). And of course there are the airlines. Spirit Airlines is near a deal with the federal government to receive $500 million in exchange for a 90% share of the airline once it emerges from bankruptcy. Does the benefit to Spirit passengers outweigh the cost to taxpayers? And once this deal was publicized, along came a group of other budget airlines, including Frontier and Avelo, who are seeking $2.5 billion in government assistance in exchange for warrants that could be converted to equity ownership. Airlines are in trouble due to the doubling of the cost of jet fuel.
Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, largely due to the war-driven increase in gas prices. When excluding gas-station sales, retail sales rose 0.6% for the month. Which leads us to the Federal Reserve (all roads lead to the Fed). The Department of Justice has dropped its inquiry into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which leaves open the possible confirmation of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair. But the door is not completely closed on the Powell inquiry, so it remains to be seen what Powell will do. He has the choice of leaving the Fed next month, or staying on the until 2028, although not as chairman. As for the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting this week, all experts expect no move on interest rates.
According to CNN, consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, hit a record low this month. “That means the average person says they feel worse about the economy today than they did in the depths of Covid, the Great Recession, 9/11 or any other time in the post-WWII era.” Yikes. Objectively, things are not worse now than they were then, but the fact that people feel that they are is a sign of the K-shaped economy, in which rich people get richer, and poor and middle-class people struggle.
But according to Goldman Sachs, the K-shaped economy will really hit us in the second half of the year. Yikes again.
And speaking of inflation, the average price of a cocktail in the U.S. is now $13.61. But in places like New York, cocktails can top $30. As a result, partiers are now “pre-drinking” before they hit the bars to save money. And flasks are making a return.
For the week ending on April 24th, the S&P closed at 7,165, the Nasdaq at 24,836, and the Dow at 49,230. The yield on the ten-year Treasury yield finished at 4.310%. West Texas crude oil cost $96.34 per barrel, while international Brent crude cost $107.88 per barrel. New York gold was bid at $4,705.35 and one Euro was worth $1.17.
Elizabeth E. CookPartner,
Diastole Wealth Management
News and information presented here was gathered from sources believed, but not guaranteed, to be reliable, including (but not limited to) Morning Brew, Yahoo Finance, Barron’s, USA Today, The Hill, Axios, Bloomberg, CNN, Business Insider, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Brookings, Fortune, Reuters, and The Guardian. If you have questions, please call Diastole at 203.458.5220, or email me, Liz Cook, at ecook@dwinvest.com. Thank you for reading!
In 2005, the average American spoke 16,632 words each day. As of 2019, that was down to 11,900. That’s a 28% decline in speaking. Apparently what we used to say, we now type. Or else everyone is suddenly very very shy.
And in a related story, for $349 you can buy a Poetry Camera, which will spit out an AI-generated poem instead of a picture each time you click. For $349, I’ll write you a poem, and we’ll read it out loud together so as not to lose more words.
by diastole-admin | Apr 20, 2026 | Uncategorized
April 20, 2026
Things in the Persian Gulf region remain unstable, with Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz on
Friday and closing it again on Saturday. At this moment, it remains closed. Oil prices are rising
on the news from the weekend, and stock prices opened lower.
But if you look at the trend of equity markets over time, stock prices rise. Why is the historical
trend of stocks perpetually upward? Inflation, of course, is a major factor. Inflation is caused by
too much money chasing too few goods, and if we consider shares of stock as the “goods”, then
it is significant that since the late 1990s, “the number of publicly traded companies has fallen by
more than half” according to The Washington Post. There are certainly not fewer companies,
but there are fewer PUBLIC companies. Many company founders are choosing to work with
private investors rather than undergo the scrutiny and regulations that come with going public.
All of which may explain to some extent why, in the middle off a war, the major stock indices hit
record highs last Wednesday. Some investors are buying stocks that profit from war, some
investors are buying stocks that profit from a hoped-for peace, and all investors are chasing
fewer available shares than we saw in the ‘90s.
Bond yields have risen during the war, reflecting speculation that scarce oil will cause inflation,
and inflation will cause the Federal Reserve to raise rates. On the day before the war was
declared in February, the ten-year Treasury Note was paying 3.96%. Today it is paying 4.20%.
The’s a six percent rise in less than two months.
And speaking of the Fed, the released minutes of the most recent Fed Open Market Committee
meeting showed (according to Schwab) that there is a growing consensus among the FOMC
governors that rate hikes sometime this year could be required to tame inflation. The next
FOMC meeting is next week.
The Producer Price Index for March was released last week, and showed that prices for final
demand (the prices that producers receive from consumers who buy their goods) rose 4% over
the past year. That is the highest reading since the covid-era inflation of three years ago.
The closed Strait of Hormuz is making oil shipments scarce, but Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates cleverly planned for this eventuality already. They built back-up pipelines that can
carry seven million barrels per day in Saudi Arabia and 1.5 million barrels in the UAE. You could
also say that the U.S. was looking ahead when it developed new oil fields and new technology
to retrieve the oil. We are now a net exporter of oil, none of which has to be shipped through the
Strait of Hormuz.
Powerball, beloved of lottery gamblers, is now expanding. Going forward, it will be possible to
buy Powerball tickets in England, Scotland, and other parts of the United Kingdom. This move is
meant to increase the size of jackpots, and of course the pool of players who are not me, or as I
like to them of them, enemies.
Amazon is expanding its new-car buying program to include Jeep, Chevrolet, and other brands.
The car market in the U.S. is worth about $1.3 TRILLION annually, and Amazon wants in. It
started the program with just Hyundai, and now is offering cars in over 130 cities. The program
allows buyers to access the inventories of local dealerships and complete their purchases online. Dealerships pay Amazon to participate. No word on whether you can return your new car
at your local Kohl’s.
Allbirds (in full transparency, let me say I own a very comfortable pair in green) has sold its shoe
business and has announced that it is planning to become an AI company. Its stock rose 350%
last week. In a related story, the Girl Scouts have sold their cookie business and in the future
will be selling Cloud Storage. Only one of these stories is false!
For the week ending on April 17th, the Dow Jones Industrials finished at 49,447, the Standard &
Poor’s 500 at 7,126, and the Nasdaq Composite at 24,468. The yield on the ten-year Treasury
Note was 4.248%. WTI crude oil cost $86.92 per barrel, while Brent crude cost $94.91 per
barrel. N.Y. gold cost $4,780 per ounce, and one Euro was worth $1.18.
Elizabeth E. Cook
Partner, Diastole Wealth Management
News and information presented here was gathered from sources believed, but not guaranteed,
to be reliable, including (but not limited to) Yahoo Finance, Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal,
CNBC, Bloomberg and Bloomberg Business Week, CNN, The Washington Post, Axios, The
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Charles Schwab, ABC News, Morning Brew, USA Today, Reuters,
CBS, and The AP. If you have questions, please call Diastole at 203.458.5220, or email me, Liz
Cook, at ecook@dwinvest.com. Thank you for reading.
Christie’s Auction House in Paris sold 120,000 tickets at 100 euros apiece, for a raffle of a
Picasso painting. The prior owner of the painting received one million euros – the approximate
value of the painting, while the excess 11 million euros were donated to Alzheimer’s research. A
Parisian software engineer held the winning ticket. My winning ticket. Apparently you can’t win if
you don’t play.
by diastole-admin | Apr 13, 2026 | Uncategorized
April 13, 2026
The U.S./Iran peace talks broke down after the first day.
The president has announced that the U.S. will blockade Iran’s ports.
Hungary’s 16-year authoritarian ruler Viktor Orban was decisively defeated in his reelection bid. Last year, Hungary fell to the poorest of the EU’s 27 member states.
The Artemis II astronauts returned to earth safely. Yay, science!
Stock markets benefitted from the Iranian war cease-fire last Wednesday, and the subsequently planned peace talks. Now that direct talks have ended, stocks are slipping and the price of oil is rising. Intermediaries from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are still trying to make progress toward peace.
As expected, inflation is increasing, led by oil prices and everything they affect: food costs, automobile costs, and the cost of almost everything else that is trucked around the country. (And if you don’t know how much of the stuff we buy is trucked in, drive around the back of a Walmart sometime to see the empty semis.)
February’s personal-consumption-expenditures price index was released last week and showed that prices rose 0.4% in February, while the year-over year number stayed at 2.8%. Then we got the consumer-price index (CPI), which rose 0.9% in March alone, and 3.3% for the trailing twelve months. You’ll of course remember that the Federal Reserve has an inflation target of 2%. According to Axios, consumer prices have risen a cumulative total of 26% since January of 2021.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey preliminary reading for April fell 11% to 47.6. If the final reading confirms this number, it would be the lowest reading on record. The previous low of 50 came at the height of the Biden-era inflation. (Inflation hit 9.1% in the month of June 2022.)
Initial unemployment claims rose to 219,000 in the week ending on April 4th. The March job numbers, as reported on April 5th, showed employment rose by 178,000. Together, the data show a relatively stable employment situation. We must remain aware, however, that our pool of workers is stagnant, what with immigration crackdowns and Boomer retirements. So far artificial intelligence (AI) is creating jobs, not killing them, but we don’t know for how long this will continue. Currently 61.9% of the working-age population is working or looking for work, which is the lowest level since 1977, except for the pandemic. In order to grow our gross domestic product (GDP) we must add workers or make current workers more productive.
The most prevalent form of fraud that Americans face is now cyber investment scams. According to the FBI, in 2025 more than one million people complained of these scams to the authorities, and the total amount that was stolen by scammers exceeded $20 billion.
For the week ending on April 10th, the Standard & Poor’s 500 finished at 6,816, the Nasdaq Composite at 22,902, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 47,916. The yield on the ten-year Treasury Note closed at 4.317%. WTI (U.S.) crude oil cost 103.66 per barrel, while Brent crude (international) cost $101.95. These prices are changing all the time. New York gold was bid at $4,747.20 per ounce, and one Euro was worth $1.17.
Elizabeth E. Cook
Partner, Diastole Wealth Management
News and information presented here was gathered from sources believed, but not guaranteed, to be reliable, including (but not limited to) Yahoo Finance, Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Axios, CNBC, Business Insider, Bloomberg and Bloomberg Business Week, The Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Guardian, CNN, Fortune, The Hustle, Gizmodo, Reuters, The New York Times, and The AP. If you have questions, please call Diastole at 203.458.5220, or email me, Liz Cook, at ecook@dwinvest.com. Thank you for reading!
Rolls Royce has announced a new EV, the Black Badge Spectre. It is sleek and gorgeous and costs half-a-million dollars. In a related story, it cost more than $100 to fill my gas tank last week. Darn it, I should have bought the Rolls!
